NZDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/JPY is another cross-currency pair that reflects both risk sentiment and global commodity prices. The New Zealand Dollar’s correlation with global commodity exports makes it sensitive to market cycles, while the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status means it appreciates during risk-off periods. This pair moves in response to global risk appetite and economic data from New Zealand and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.25%. Latest change was Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.75% by latest change, Dec 19, 2025 (25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 9. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -10% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -1% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.91% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -1.19%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.93%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -1.07% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -1.14% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.94%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDJPY price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from NZD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -47745 included 12074 long, 59819 short and 1865 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 1865 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -33933 included 104460 long, 138393 short and 10896 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 10896 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDJPY with 100% 0% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 91.598.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 93.713. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.