-
- Interest Rate4.35
- Inflation Rate MoM0.4
- Inflation Expectations5.6
- Retail Sales MoM
- GDP Growth Rate0.3
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI50.7
- Services PMI 48.7
- Unemployment Rate4.5
-
- 3.75Interest Rate
- 0.5Inflation Rate MoM
- 3.5Inflation Expectations
- 0.5Retail Sales MoM
- 1.6GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 55.1Manufacturing PMI
- 50.7Services PMI
- 4.3Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Short at major resistance areas
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bearish
✅
Forecast is Bearish
✅
Trend is SELL
Dynamic resistance at R3 (0.70609) and R4 (0.70822) could be apropos entries
- 2026-06-11 05:48 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Over Sold
Sell
Buy
Buy
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 0.70113
S1: 0.69851
S2: 0.69686
S3: 0.69424
R1: 0.70278
R2: 0.70540
R3: 0.70705
AUDUSD, Retail traders Sentiment
AUDUSD, Retails Liquidity history
>Australian Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous 60,155
Current 41,812
Changes -18343 -30%>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous 850
Current 3,758
Changes +2908 342%
Licensed User access
Base: AUD
Interest rate: 4.35%
Australia 10Y Bonds: 4.900 , chg: 0.005 (0.100%)
China Bonds, China 10Y: 1.743 , chg: -0.006 (0.100%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate
Fundamental Score: 6
COT POS: AUD: 41812 pos, last change: -30% (-18343 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 60%
Retail trader Sell position: 0
Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (0.70822): 0.00727
Quote: USD
Interest rate: 3.75%
Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.543 , chg: 0.002 (0.040%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Strong
Fundamental Score: 11
COT POS: USD: 3758 pos, last change: 342% (2908 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 40%
Retail trader Long position: 0
Retail trader Buy volume: 0 lot
Distance to Support S4 (0.69428): 0.00667
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Bearish Moderate
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate: 4.35%
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Last change: May 05, 2026 (25bp)
Bullish Strong
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 3.75%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate4.35
- CPI y/y4.2
- Inflation Rate MoM0.4
- Producer Prices Change3
- Core Inflation Rate MoM
- Consumer Price Index CPI103
- Inflation Expectations5.6
- Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- GDP Growth Rate0.3
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI50.7
- Services PMI 48.7
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- Unemployment Rate4.5
- Employment Rate63.7
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Non Farm Payrolls
- Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- Balance of Trade1791
- Consumer Confidence80.6
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE-7
-
- 3.75Interest Rate
- 4.2CPI y/y
- 0.5Inflation Rate MoM
- 6Producer Prices Change
- 0.2Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 335Consumer Price Index CPI
- 3.5Inflation Expectations
- 0.5Retail Sales MoM
- 1Core Producer Prices MoM
- 1.6GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 55.1Manufacturing PMI
- 50.7Services PMI
- 54.5Non Manufacturing PMI
- 4.3Unemployment Rate
- 59.2Employment Rate
- 225Initial Jobless Claims
- 172Non Farm Payrolls
- 0.3Average Hourly Earnings
- 122ADP Employment Change
- 0Balance of Trade
- 44.8Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 3TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
- Hawkish Monetary Policy
Bullish points
Bearish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the official currency of Australia and is one of the top 10 most traded currencies in the forex market. The AUD is a commodity currency, closely tied to Australia’s exports, including coal, iron ore, and gold. Economic activity in China, a major trading partner, also strongly influences the AUD due to China’s demand for raw materials. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the monetary policy for the AUD. Key drivers for the AUD include commodity prices, interest rates, inflation, and global risk sentiment. The AUD tends to appreciate when commodity prices rise and when investor appetite for riskier assets increases. It may weaken in periods of global financial uncertainty or when commodity demand wanes.
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
AUDUSD Analysis
Introduction
The AUD/USD is a commodity-linked currency pair, with the Australian Dollar driven by commodity exports such as iron ore, coal, and gold. The pair is sensitive to global risk sentiment, and its price typically rises when global demand for raw materials increases. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions also play a major role in the AUD/USD’s movements. Additionally, the AUD has a strong correlation with the Chinese Yuan, due to Australia's significant trade relations with China.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.35%. Latest change was May 05, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Moderate Bearish and for the USD is Strong Bullish.
Ziwox considering Strong Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 6. and Fundamental Score for USD is 11. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 1.32% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.09% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.14% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.22%
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.16% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.03%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 41812 included 105176 long, 63364 short and -18343 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -18343 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 3758 included 24584 long, 20826 short and 2908 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 2908 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDUSD with 40% 60% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDUSD prices may continue to rise.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The AUDUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.69428.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.70822. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.
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Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.
Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
