CADJPY Analysis

Introduction

The CAD/JPY is closely correlated with oil prices, as Canada’s economy relies on energy exports. A rise in crude oil often supports the CAD, while the JPY tends to appreciate during risk-averse market conditions. This pair is influenced by the commodity market, especially oil, and by interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada policy is Dovish with the (BOC) current Interest rate 2.25%. Latest change was Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.75% by latest change, Dec 19, 2025 (25bp).
(BOC) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in CAD. This tends to attract foreign capital into CAD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of CAD is -- Neutral and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
mid-term Fundamental Score for CAD is 4. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo & London", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 1.25% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.03% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.09% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.13%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.08%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.03% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.1% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.08%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -94111 included 37723 long, 131834 short and -25229 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -25229 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -129567 included 114849 long, 244416 short and -14900 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -14900 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the CADJPY with 89% 11% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability CADJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The CADJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 114.693.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 115.615. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.